Plain-language summary:
An Alberta clipper diving southeastward will bring some snow showers and squalls to much of the region today through tonight, except from the southern Adirondacks to southern New Hampshire which will be south of the main dynamic forcing. As with most clippers, it will be moisture-starved, but some instability and lift within the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) will lead to efficient snow growth and high snow-to-liquid ratios. Many areas will receive 1-3” (2-8 cm) of snow and some northwestern facing slopes could reach 5” (13 cm).
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| Source: TropicalTidbits |
A cold high pressure will return for Monday but it will not be as cold as Friday and Saturday was. A storm approaching from the west will occlude and stretch out, leading to the precipitation weakening and not as robust as earlier expected. One part of the storm will transfer to the coast but slide southeastward, unable to pull much moisture into Northern New England, though the southeastern-facing slopes of the southern Adirondacks and southern Green and White Mountains could squeeze out heavier snow due to upslope. The other part will move into eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, where snow will be heavier (total 4-8” or 10-20 cm possible especially in the Laurentians) with better dynamics and a little convergence and upslope due to the deep-layer southeasterly flow. Only light to occasionally moderate snow will encompass the rest of the region (2-5” or 5-13 cm), and the Champlain and northern Connecticut River Valleys will not get much snow (1-3” or 2-8 cm) due to the downsloping southeasterly winds.
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| Source: TropicalTidbits |
After that storm weakens and gets absorbed into a broad low over northern Ontario and western Quebec, another weak storm will move out of the Plains and into the Great Lakes region Wednesday evening and eventually into Maine by Thursday. This track favors snow mostly north of the U.S./Canada border, though snow at the start is possible farther south. A moisture-laden storm follows behind for late Friday into Saturday, but its track is uncertain. If it tracks far enough north, it would bring a widespread heavy snowfall, most likely south of the U.S./Canada border.
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| Source: TropicalTidbits |
Beyond that, the weather pattern looks very different from the rest of the winter. A -NAO signature, along with some Alaska ridging and a weakening Pacific jet, will likely lead to colder, possibly significantly colder, than average temperatures across eastern North America in mid-March. March cold is not January cold, but it is cold enough for snow in our area. March could possibly even be the coldest and snowiest month of the winter for some! There might be a brief resurgence of the southeast U.S. ridge with a mild spell around March 7, but even this could be thwarted by the -NAO and upper-level low over Atlantic Canada. It is not clear if this will be a snowy pattern, as sometimes the -NAO could force all the storms to the south. However, suppression has not really been an issue this winter, and I am skeptical that will happen. With the ever present -PNA forcing troughs into the western U.S., it is equally as likely for storms to eject out of the Rockies, into the southern U.S., and turn into big New England snowstorms if the trough/ridge positions and different pieces of energy come together correctly. For now, the pattern seems to favor slightly above average precipitation during that time.
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| Source: TropicalTidbits and Climate Prediction Center |
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| Source: Climate Prediction Center |