After a taste of fall, summerlike weather to return but without the intense Western heat; drought conditions to advance in the north with little rain expected

Plain-language summary:

A stalled cold front to the south will bring rain today into tomorrow to southern Vermont to southern Maine with cloudy but dry conditions just to the north and clearer skies in eastern Canada. Dry weather with mostly clear skies and warming temperatures will occur from mid-week to the weekend. Some showers with breezier conditions with warm and humid conditions are likely early to mid next week.

Meteorological discussion:

A cold front in southern New England has stalled. A fall-like air mass has settled in to the north, with cloudy conditions in northern New England and clear and crisp conditions associated with a cool high pressure system in eastern Canada. A low pressure will ride along the stalled front and bring a long-duration, light to moderate intensity rain and cooler temperatures to southern New England, bringing some relief to drought conditions there. Southeastern Canada and far northern New England will remain dry, with the cool air mass moving off to the east and modifying as ridging builds back in overtop of the stalled front.

Source: College of DuPage

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

Source: U.S. Drought Monitor and TropicalTidbits

The stalled front will eventually weaken, and the rain to the south will reduce to scattered showers by Tuesday night. The air mass will continue to warm throughout the week with abundant sunshine north of the weakening front, and highs in the low-mid 80s F (mid-high 20s C) will be widespread at lower elevations from late-week through the weekend. However, the large-scale flow will not be ideal to advect the very hot air from the Western U.S. and Plains. A very weak cold front could send some clouds and slightly cooler air Thursday evening, but otherwise it will have little effect. With the dry, Canadian air mass initially and lack of strong moisture advection, humidity will remain relatively low through the weekend. The ridge will promote dry, clear conditions and cool nights relative to daytime highs, especially with the longer nights at this time of year. River valley fog is also possible. The dry weather will also lead to much of northern New England, which has been somewhat dry but not as dry as southern New England, to at least temporarily advance into drought conditions.

Source: TropicalTidbits

By early next week, the ridge is expected to move just offshore, with increasing southerly flow, moisture advection, and cloudiness leading to slightly cooler daytime highs but much warmer nights along with higher humidity. This will also increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially if a cold front to the west slows down and stalls. But like with any long-range forecast, this is somewhat uncertain, and there is additional uncertainty from whether to-be Hurricane Earl gets picked up by a trough this weekend or gets left behind wandering in the western Atlantic.

Source: TropicalTidbits