Much cooler and drier through mid-week; modestly warmer later in the week with rain on Friday but otherwise mostly dry; no heat waves anytime soon although it might turn hotter and more humid in the long-range

Plain-language summary:

It will be much cooler and drier through mid-week, except some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm mainly over higher terrain on Monday, with the coolest nights and lowest humidity since mid-June. It will turn modestly warmer later in the week with rain on Friday, but it will be otherwise dry with no real heat and humidity. Locally heavy rainfall is possible on Friday, but the lesser moisture and drier ground by then will limit any additional flooding. After turning cooler and drier again for next weekend, some heat and humidity could gradually return by mid-August.

Meteorological discussion:

 

After yet more rain yesterday, much cooler and drier air mass from the arctic has arrived for today, with the lowest dew points since mid-June, mainly in the 50s F (10-15 C). Mostly sunny skies will lead to a decent warmup through this afternoon, but the mostly clear skies will allow for a cool night tonight. A secondary cold front will arrive tomorrow and spark some afternoon showers and perhaps thunderstorms, especially over the higher terrain, given the cold air aloft and some daytime heating inducing instability, but the relatively dry air will prevent any heavy downpours and keep coverage rather scattered. Behind that, it will be slightly cooler with clearing skies as a cool high pressure builds in from the northwest, with <50F (<10C) likely Monday and/or Tuesday nights almost everywhere except coastal areas, the immediate Lake Champlain shoreline, and urban areas. Aside from Monday afternoon, we are in for quite a dry stretch, in stark contrast to the record or near-record rains many areas have received so far in July, especially in southern Quebec and western New England.

Source: CoCoRaHS

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

As the high pressure moves off to the east, plentiful sunshine will lead to a gradual warmup through Thursday, with southerly winds and warm advection strengthening on Thursday ahead of the next low pressure system in northern Ontario then. The low pressure will move into Quebec by Friday, and could lead to a widespread rain or scattered showers and thunderstorms, depending on the exact track of the low pressure and any other secondary disturbances that might accompany it to the south. For now, the steadier and cooler rain looks more likely north of the U.S./Canada border, with more scattered and convective rains to the south. While some downpours are possible, the ground will have dried out enough for the flooding threat to be rather minimal.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

Another trough will likely move in by next weekend, with another cool and dry air mass coming from the northwest, though perhaps not as intense as the current air mass. These air masses have been forced southeastward into New England by upper-level ridging in western North America, especially over northwestern Canada. This will ensure that the first week of August will be rather cool. Ensembles of multiple models indicate that the troughing and cool air masses over our area may weaken or switch over to the western U.S. in the long-range, perhaps after August 10 or so, leading to more ridging and hotter and more humid weather in our area. However, forecasts at that range are always somewhat uncertain.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits