Less stormy and warmer for upcoming week except Tuesday and Friday; a lot of uncertainty afterward but perhaps more variable temperatures

Plain-language summary:

 

Seasonable temperatures with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. The upcoming week will not be as stormy as recent weeks and will be slightly warmer than earlier this month. After a dry day with similar or slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow, Tuesday is expected to be cloudy, cool, and somewhat wet, but heavy rain is unlikely. It will turn drier and warmer on Wednesday and especially Thursday. Some showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday before the forecast turns rather uncertain. A change in the configuration of weather systems could lead to a more roller coaster temperature pattern with still rather frequent storminess afterward.

 

Meteorological discussion:

 

A surface low pressure is passing to the north today. With somewhat warmer southwest flow to the south in our area, combined with decent sunshine, will lead to a bit of instability and scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, mostly from Vermont eastward. However, relatively dry air aloft will preclude widespread storms and heavy rain. The low pressure will move to the northeast by tonight, allowing for a brief period of ridging, accompanied by dry weather and decen sunshine on Monday. Temperatures will be close to the climatological average both today and tomorrow for most, though they will be a bit cooler north of the U.S./Canada border and tomorrow will be a bit cooler. The next low pressure system arrives on Tuesday, though it appears relatively weak. It will provide a lot of clouds and unseasonably cool temperatures for most of the region, but heavy rain appears unlikely. 

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

 

There is high confidence in a period of mostly dry weather on Wednesday and especially Thursday, with near average temperatures on Wednesday and slightly above average temperatures on Thursday, which will likely be the warmest day of the month so far for areas northwest of the Appalachians. After that, models diverge over the location and timing of different systems, but a best guess is that a trough will move into the Great Lakes and eastern Canada on Friday, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms in our area, depending on how much the trough strengthens and dives southward. 

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

A trough finally poking into western Canada will allow more ridging to build over the central and eastern U.S. by next weekend or early the following week. Areas under the ridge will be very hot and humid and mostly dry. However, the ridge will promote a strong temperature gradient on its northern edge, where cloudiness and storminess will dominate. The biggest uncertainty lies in how far northeastward the ridge expands, which depends on how deep the trough pokes into western Canada, which is still somewhat uncertain. If the ridge expands into our area, we will see some very hot days, most likely south of the U.S./Canada border. However, if it stays farther southwest, we will be on the edge of the ridge, which would be a favored area for more cloudiness and storminess, and if the ridge is even farther southwest, we would get below average temperatures again with backdoor cold fronts, but with mostly high pressure and dry weather. Also, if the ridge oscillates back and forth, we will have a roller-coaster temperature pattern, with very hot days just ahead of cold fronts, chilly days behind cold fronts, and stormy days along cold fronts and broader low pressure systems riding along the edge of the ridge.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits