Chilly weekend, then much warmer on Tuesday and Wednesday before cooler for rest of the week; staying dry next week except a bit of rain, snow, ice pellets in Quebec Monday and light rain on Wednesday; uncertain afterward but still likely warmer and drier than average

Plain-language summary:

 

After a chilly weekend, it will suddenly turn much warmer again on Tuesday and Wednesday before turning cooler again for the rest of the week. Except for a little rain possibly mixed with snow and ice pellets Monday in Quebec and light rain with the cold frontal passage on Wednesday, it will be predominantly dry, like most of this fall so far. It will likely turn warmer again the following week for at least a few days, perhaps with storminess to accompany it. The weather pattern becomes quite uncertain around that time, though likely still leaning towards warmer and drier than average with little chance of widespread early-season snow through mid-November.

Meteorological discussion:

The recent temperature roller coaster will continue for another week at least. A cool southern Canadian high pressure has led to a clear, cold night last night and will lead to a cool, sunny day and cold night tonight for most, though mid to high level clouds north of the U.S./Canada border will slightly hamper radiational cooling tonight there, making it not as cold as last night. As the surface high pressure moves southeastward off the U.S. East Coast on Monday and Tuesday, a surface low pressure will move northeastward into northern Ontario and then central Quebec, triggered by another digging upper-level trough in the Rockies. This combination will lead to strong southwesterly flow advecting in an unseasonably warm air mass, leading to rapidly warming temperatures back to well above average temperatures, almost a repeat of earlier this week though slightly cooler and shorter-lived. It could reach 70F (21C) in the St. Lawrence Valley of far southwestern Quebec and northwestern New York on Tuesday, and then in southern Vermont to southern Maine on Wednesday with some sunshine. Before it gets really warm, there could be a short period of light rain mixed with ice pellets and snow in Quebec on Monday.

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

Similar to this weekend, the upper-level trough shearing out and weakening as it lifts northeastward means that the cold front temperatures will be associated with only brief and light showers, and perhaps not even that southeast of the Appalachians with downsloping drying, though temperatures will drop sharply behind the cold front on Wednesday, with a cool Canadian high pressure on Thursday and Friday, followed by another one next weekend behind a secondary cold front. This is associated with an at least temporary re-configuration of the synoptic-scale weather pattern, with the PNA turning positive implying ridging in western North America, though with the NAO and AO staying positive, there is nothing to push true Arctic air into the contiguous U.S. Instead, a cut-off low will sit in the eastern Rockies and western Plains for several days while ridging builds overtop, with broad troughing over northeastern Canada leaving broad deep-layer westerly to northwesterly flow from the Midwest U.S. to eastern Canada, meaning that it is mostly dry here while staying cooler but with the coldest air staying off to the northeast.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

Source: Climate Prediction Center

By the following week, an upper-level trough is expected to push into the western U.S. again, with the PNA falling to near zero. This will likely trigger another warmup in our region, perhaps with occasional storminess, though widespread heavy precipitation has been incredibly difficult to get in the eastern U.S. this fall so far and might still be unlikely unless upper-level troughs or cut-off lows can dig deeper into the Ohio Valley and southern U.S. and pick up Gulf of Mexico moisture more easily. After that, the weather pattern becomes quite uncertain, though it still likely favors a slight anomalous trough in western North America and a slight anomalous ridge in eastern North America, with most days in our region being warmer than average, and perhaps with it still being generally drier than average, as most of the storminess stays to the west and then weakens before reaching our region, making it difficult to get any widespread early-season snow through mid-November. 

Source: TropicalTidbits