Benign weather for foreseeable future with no big temperature swings; sunny but cool today, hard freeze tonight, then warmer Monday and Tuesday with period of rain; drier and a bit cooler Wednesday; warmer Friday and Saturday with period of rain and breezy conditions; then cooler next Sunday, then warmer, then uncertain but maybe a bit cooler and more unsettled

Plain-language summary:

The weather will be rather benign for the foreseeable future, with most days being slightly warmer than average, with none of the big temperature swings that often occur during spring. After a cool but sunny day today, there will be hard freeze tonight. It will be warmer but not particularly warm Monday and Tuesday, with a short period of light to moderate rain Monday evening and night. It will turn drier and slightly cooler Wednesday, before turning breezier and warmer Friday and Saturday with more clouds and some rain. It turns cooler but not cold next Sunday and then warmer for the middle of the following week, before the weather pattern becomes really uncertain but possibly a bit cooler and more unsettled.

Meteorological discussion:

Sunny but cool today, hard freeze tonight, warmer Monday and Tuesday with rain Monday night

 

The weather looks rather benign for the foreseeable future, with generally springlike, slightly above average temperatures, without the temperature roller-coaster that often occurs in spring. A Canadian surface high pressure cresting over our region, providing sunny skies and very dry air, unlike yesterday. It is also cooler than yesterday, given the chilly air brought in from the northwest by the surface high pressure, but the late April sun angle is heating the surface the best it can, with most lower elevations still reaching at least 50F (10C). However, with clear skies, calm wind, and dry air, temperatures will fall quickly tonight, with a hard freeze for most. The high pressure will quickly move to the east tonight into tomorrow, with a low-pressure system quickly moving northeastward into the Great Lakes, which will lead to increasing clouds, southerly wind and warm advection, and eventually a short period of light to moderate rain Monday evening and night. The track of the storm well north into central Quebec, a result of the -PNA pattern (upper-level trough in western North America with a downstream upper-level ridge in eastern North America) means that most of the dynamics and steady rain will pass to the north. The passage of our region into the warm sector, yet with the truly warm air being pinched off to the south, means that we will see near to slightly above average temperatures for Monday and Tuesday.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

Source: Climate Prediction Center

Slightly cooler and dry Wednesday and Thursday, warmer Friday and Saturday with period of rain and breezy conditions

It will cool down slightly behind the low-pressure system for Wednesday, with dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. But there is no strong push of truly cold air into our region from the north, and with a weak -PNA and associated upper-level trough in western North America persisting, another discombobulated and broad low-pressure system will already will moving into the Plains by Wednesday and Thursday, with warmth and moisture pushing into the eastern U.S. with an upper-level ridge building again. However, it appears once again that the truly warm air will be pinched off to our south, with maritime air modified by the still cool western Atlantic modifying any warm and moist air mass trying to enter our region. The neutral or slightly negative NAO as well as the slightly negative AO could be helping to keep the jet stream a little farther south, preventing sustained warmth despite the weak -PNA. Still, it could turn rather warm on Friday and Saturday with strengthening southerly winds ahead of the low-pressure system that would be pushing well into central Quebec by that time, though likely accompanied by increased clouds and at least some rain as well. The modification of any warm and moist air mass will likely prevent any severe thunderstorms from occurring in our region, and it is still a bit early in the season for severe thunderstorms.

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

Cooler next Sunday, warmer middle of following week, then uncertain but possibly a bit cooler and unsettled

A cool shot will likely enter in from the northwest accompanied by a dry central Canadian surface high pressure system next Sunday, similar to today, though it does not look particularly impressive or even as cool as today. There will likely be another warmup for the middle of the following week, but then the -PNA transitions to a neutral or slightly positive PNA afterward, with the potential for general weak upper-level troughing in the eastern U.S., leading to modestly cooler and possibly more unsettled weather. However, there is no indication of any really cold (or warm) air masses, and I suspect that it will just continue the rather benign weather pattern, though there is considerable model disagreement on even the general weather during this time.

Source: TropicalTidbits