Seasonable temperatures for next several days; showers and a few thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday, but otherwise mostly dry next week; cool Friday and next weekend; possibly stormier with more temperature swings in long range

Plain-language summary: 

 

Temperatures not far from average are expected through Thursday. A mostly sunny day today with near to slightly above average temperatures, although with lingering Canadian wildfire smoke, will be replaced by increasing clouds with showers and scattered thunderstorms later Monday into Tuesday, though widespread heavy rain is not expected. It will be dry and mostly sunny for most Wednesday into Friday with a cooling trend. Southern areas could see some rain next weekend, though areas to the north likely remain dry, with rather cool temperatures. After next weekend, it is possible that we get more temperature swings, with both cooler and hot, humid days, as well as more storminess.

 

Meteorological discussion:

 

Mostly sunny and slightly warm today, showers and scattered thunderstorms push west to east later Monday into Tuesday 

 

Friday and Saturday featured heavy rain and thunderstorms from southern Vermont to central Maine associated with a very slowly-moving and weakening cold front, but dry and only partly cloudy weather north of the U.S./Canada border. With the cold front nearly completely gone now, we are left with mostly sunny weather across the region, with near to slightly above average temperatures and still a bit of Canadian wildfire smoke that has yet to completely settle causing haze and poor air quality in some areas. A low-pressure system is slowly approaching from the Great Lakes, which will bring increased clouds and showers in Ontario and northwestern New York later Monday before slowly pushing into southern Quebec and northern New England later Monday night into Tuesday morning. With only weak dynamics and not particularly rich moisture after the cold frontal passage, widespread heavy rain is not expected, with mostly just a few rounds of showers for most. However, any clearing Tuesday afternoon in western areas will lead to daytime instability given at least modest low-level moisture and the proximity of the upper-level low, triggering a few showers and thunderstorms. Cool Atlantic air and more persistent clouds will lead to a cooler day along and east of the Green Mountains on Tuesday.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

 

Dry and mostly sunny with gradual cooling trend Wednesday into Friday, then cool with possible rain in far southern areas but likely dry to the north next weekend

 

There is no strong cold front next week; rather, west-northwesterly flow with a surface high pressure over Hudson Bay will gradually advect cooler, drier air through Friday with sunshine likely dominating for most, while heat and humidity finally starts building in the central and Midwest U.S. The broad surface high pressure will be rather slow to move eastward and will continue to advect cool, dry air through next weekend, though perhaps with a bit of moderation with the June sun angle. This is a change from previous forecasts showing more heat and humidity to re-enter our region during this time. But it turns out that the upper-level ridge will be squashed too far southwest for any of the heat and humidity to reach our region. In fact, it is so far southwest that even the battle zone between the cooler, drier air to the northeast and the hot, humid air to the southwest could only clip far southern areas with rain, with areas to the north staying dry and mostly sunny. This air mass is cool enough that most places could fail to reach 70F (21C) on Friday and next weekend even with sunshine, and it could get rather chilly at night for June, especially outside urban areas and large bodies of water. In southern areas that are cloudier and rainier, highs may struggle to get past 60F (16C)!

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

 

Possible swings between cooler and hot, humid days along with increased storminess after next weekend

 

The Hudson Bay surface high pressure system will likely push southeastward and off the U.S. East Coast for the following week, which could allow for a westerly to southwesterly flow of hotter, more humid air at times into our region, though such a high-pressure movement usually means eastern and coastal areas hang on to cooler surface air for a little longer. For the hotter, more humid air to reach our region, the central and possibly eastern U.S. ridge promoted by the -PNA (though there is model disagreement on that in the long range) would have to bulge northeastward at least periodically; otherwise, our region will just get stuck in the clouds and storminess along the edge of the ridge as the hot, humid air pushing northeastward fights the antecedent cooler air and fails. The upper-level ridge position likely indicates that if we do get surges of hot, humid air, they will be followed by surges of cooler, drier air associated with Canadian surface high-pressure systems behind cold fronts, with the more persistent heat and humidity staying to our southwest. This is supported by the positive NAO and lack of high-latitude blocking suggesting quickly moving systems and a stronger than usual north-to-south temperature gradient. This would create a stormier weather pattern with more up and down temperature swings, but the details of this are very uncertain this far out.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

 

Source: Climate Prediction Center