Cold weather continues for another few days, with snow showers and squalls today and light snow Monday night in northern areas; then turns milder Wednesday through Friday with rain Thursday night into Friday; turns colder likely with frequent but not major wintry precipitation events

Plain-language summary:

 

The amazingly persistent and intense cold weather pattern will continue for another few days, with snow showers and squalls for areas along and northwest of Appalachians today, very cold and dry weather Sunday and Monday, and a bit of snow for areas along and northwest of Appalachians on Monday night. Then, it turns milder Wednesday through Friday with rain Thursday night into Friday, likely the first rain of the month for most northern areas. It then turns colder again but with the most intense cold staying to the north and mild weather staying not too far to our south, leading to our region likely experiencing frequent bouts of wintry precipitation into the following week, though major storms do not appear likely.

 

Meteorological discussion:

 

Snow showers and squalls for along and northwest of Appalachians today, then cold and dry through Monday before a bit of snow Monday night 

 

Arctic air is still in picture for a few more days. A weak and elongated Alberta clipper centered over western Quebec will lead to snow showers and even squalls mostly along and northwest of the Appalachians today, with the still warm Lake Ontario enhancing the snow in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, the most in the upslope areas of the southern Laurentians. However, another disturbance to the south will take over and bring a few hours of light to moderate snow to southern New England late tonight, but as with any potential coastal storm so far this year and most recent winters, it will strengthen much too late and be much too suppressed to produce any big snow for anywhere in New England given the suppressive west-northwesterly flow. Instead, another dry and cold arctic air mass coming straight from the northwest will envelop the region Sunday and Monday, though with another weakening clipper bringing just a bit of snow Monday night along and northwest of the Appalachians.

 

Source: Aviation Weather Center

 

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

 

Turns milder Wednesday through Friday with rain Friday 

 

A big weather pattern change then ensues starting Wednesday. The prominent Alaskan upper-level ridge that brought all the cold arctic air to our region over the past few weeks will retrograde westward to the Bering Sea, which means cold air still floods North America, but the upper-level trough gets focused along the West Coast instead of in eastern North America. This promotes upper-level ridging in the central and southern U.S. with a surface low-pressure track to the north bringing westerly flow of mild Pacific air. The first such mild surge will reach our region later Wednesday as a strong low-pressure system tracks way to the north over central Quebec, so far north that little precipitation will fall, though any precipitation in northern areas could still fall as wet snow given the limited time for moderation of the arctic air and the deep snowpack over our region. Though a brief cooldown follows for Thursday, another fast-moving strong low-pressure system taking a similar track will bring a stronger mild push from the south and southwest with more moisture, leading to more widespread rain Thursday night into Friday, the first rain of the month for many especially along and northwest of the Appalachians. 

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

 

Winter returns next weekend into following week but extreme cold is not as dominant, with frequent opportunities for wintry precipitation though big storms appear unlikely

 

However, arctic air looks to push back into the region later Friday, and from then on, the upper-level ridge could be more confined to areas just southwest of our region, with the slight Greenland blocking still favoring enough upper-level troughing over Atlantic Canada to keep the cold arctic surface high-pressure systems to sneak in from the north and prevent any real torch in our region. The resulting dominant west-northwesterly flow isn't too favorable for big storms or any storm tapping into much Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic moisture, much like the last several weeks, though the strong temperature gradient favors frequent, fast-moving clippers with stronger dynamics/forcing for ascent than usual for clippers and could still lead to heavy precipitation rates in relatively small areas within storms. So it could still be stormier and snowier than typical even without any truly big storms. One such storm appears likely next weekend that could bring a decent amount of snow changing to ice and/or rain for many locations, though current models have the surface low too far north for the best dynamics and precipitation in our region, and it is way too early for details. Arctic air will follow again behind that storm but not advance too far south, with the coldest air likely remaining to the north, given the upper-level ridge to the southwest, with more storms likely riding along the temperature gradient and affecting our region the following week bringing wintry precipitation given the arctic air around.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

 

Source: Climate Prediction Center