Somewhat moderating cold and mostly dry through Thursday except a little snow for northern areas Tuesday into Wednesday; minor snow likely Friday to Saturday; very cold again after through early following week, then maybe stormier and not as cold

Plain-language summary:

 

It will be dry with cold but not frigid temperatures and mostly clear skies through Monday night, and the cold will moderate somewhat through the week. A little snow is likely in northern areas late Tuesday into Wednesday before drying out again for Thursday. A more widespread minor snow event is likely Friday into early Saturday, with a small chance of a heavier snowfall in Maine. It turns very cold and likely dry again Sunday into early the following week. Storminess could return with moderating cold later the following week into mid-February.

 

Meteorological discussion:

Mostly dry with slowly moderating cold through Thursday, except a little snow in northern areas late Tuesday into Wednesday 

 

As expected, the rapidly intensifying Nor'easter is way too far to the southeast to bring any snow to our region, instead simply sucking all the clouds and moisture with it as a piece of energy connecting to the suppressive western Atlantic upper-level trough pushes it out to sea. Instead, northerly flow of dry air will dominate through Monday night as a surface high-pressure system noses in from central Canada, with mostly clear skies, which have not commonly lasted that long this winter. Winds will also lighten, allowing temperatures to plummet at night away from urban areas and large bodies of water given the extensive snow cover. 

 

Most of the arctic air is actually drilling southward into Florida and is not being replenished, so while it is cold today, it is not nearly as anomalous as in areas farther south and will grow stale through Tuesday. A weak, slow-moving clipper will bring intermittent snow showers along and northwest of the Appalachians Tuesday into early Wednesday, though accumulations will be <2" (5 cm) for most. There will also be a weak disturbance in the subtropical jet with more moisture, but fittingly for recent years, it will be too far south with the wrong jet stream configuration to allow it to interact favorably with the clipper to the north, leading to two separate and weaker systems. A re-inforcing shot of cold air will come behind the clipper, though it will not be arctic, instead being just slightly colder than normal. More surface high-pressure and dry weather will ensue through Thursday. The suppressive cold, dry weather pattern is driven by a classic combination of western North American upper-level ridging (+PNA) and high-latitude blocking (-NAO and -AO), with the western Atlantic trough being especially important in suppressing any southern jet stream storms to the south. It is actually not a particularly arctic weather pattern, but the preceding cold weather, extensive snow cover, ice cover over the Great Lakes, and winds directly from the northwest are combining to produce an extended period of cold weather.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

Minor snow likely Friday into early Saturday with small chance of heavier snow in Maine, then very cold again for Sunday into early following week

 

By Friday, a stronger clipper will dive southeastward into Quebec with another piece of energy hanging back to the southwest. It is uncertain how these two pieces of energy will interact with each other, though most indications are that it will be a widespread light snow later Friday into early Saturday that moves out by later Saturday, with an elongated area of light snow but without much moisture access to the Gulf of Mexico or western Atlantic. There have been a few rogue model runs showing a more amplified upper-level trough associated with the whole setup that would dig south, allowing the piece of energy hanging back to the southwest to form a rapidly-strengthening Nor'easter that slows down, picks up western Atlantic moisture, and brings heavy snow to eastern New England, especially Maine, but models tend to overdo these scenarios in the medium-range, and recent history argues against this scenario. Models have been trending toward the clipper staying too far north to interact favorably with the other disturbance, leaving a disorganized and elongated area of light snow. Regardless of how this turns out, a fresh and very cold arctic air mass will move in directly from the north behind the clipper for Sunday and into early the following week, likely with clearing skies.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

Possibly turning stormier and snowier and not as cold later following week into mid-February 

 

The following week is a source of big uncertainty. The upper-level ridge in western North America will finally break down, with the Pacific jet becoming more active, allowing storms to move into the western U.S. and even into the Rockies with more regularity, a rarity this winter so far. The uncertain part is how suppressive the weather pattern will remain in eastern North America. A few days ago, models showed the Greenland blocking and upper-level trough in Atlantic Canada being very strong and slow-moving, suppressing any storm coming out of the Rockies to the southwest of our region or just weakening it. However, over the past couple of days, models are showing the suppression and blocking being a bit more relaxed, which would allow at least some of the storminess to push northeastward into our region, ending the prolonged dry spell, with precipitation type likely being snow at least at first given the abundance of cold air in front of it. Such a pattern would also allow for at least modestly milder air to dominate instead of arctic air masses. If the western North America upper-level trough continues with the western Atlantic trough and Greenland blocking retreating a bit more, it is even possible that mixed precipitation occurs during one of the storms starting mid-February, though I do not think this is likely for now. While persistent upper-level troughiness in western North America often spells upper-level ridging and warmth in eastern North America, I suspect that the leftovers of the high-latitude blocking pattern, unusually extensive snow cover, frozen Great Lakes, and cold ground will feed back into the weather pattern enough to prevent much if any thawing in our region for a while, even if temperatures climb to above average levels. At this time of year, such a pattern could actually be snowier due to the storminess coming out of the Rockies, as opposed to a suppressive cold and dry northwesterly flow weather pattern that we have seen often this winter.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

Source: Climate Prediction Center