Showery today and/or tomorrow, but most of cold and unsettled weather to stay to the west this week; pattern change with big warmup next week

Plain-language summary:

 

Some light showers in western areas today and heavier rain in Maine tomorrow will give way to cooler, but not particularly cold, and mostly dry weather, outside for a few showers in western areas, for the rest of the week. Most of the cold, rain, and snow will stay to the west. A big, extended warmup looks likely next week with breezy southerly winds and an almost total reversal of the weather pattern we have had for most of the past month.

 

Meteorological discussion:

 

There are some scattered showers going on today, especially from Vermont westwards, associated with a cold front that will become diffuse and slowly move eastward. Bands of showers will slowly move northeastward into Maine tonight and tomorrow. There will be relatively limited moisture, leading to light rainfall amounts in western New England, northern New York, eastern Ontario, and southern Quebec. However, as it moves into Maine, stronger transport of moist, Atlantic air and some upslope southerly flow will lead to heavier rainfall there.

 

Source: Aviation Weather Center and PivotalWeather

A very amplified pattern is currently in place with a big upper-level ridge in western North America and a strong cut-off upper-level low over the Great Lakes. After the frontal passage, the deep, cold, and vertically stacked low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will provide cool but mostly dry weather with breezy southerly or southwesterly winds in the area from Tuesday through Thursday. A few showers are possible over the Adirondacks, southwestern Quebec, and eastern Ontario with snow mixing at very high elevations with minimal accumulations. The unseasonably cold air mass is moving into the Midwest U.S., then into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, before moving into our area. This indirect path allows for significant air mass modification, and so the air mass will not be nearly as cold as it was farther west. In fact, with breezy conditions and some clouds preventing strong radiational cooling, it may not even drop below freezing at night in many low-elevation locations, despite freezes expected over parts of the Deep South. The low pressure area staying over the Great Lakes also means that the rain and snow will mostly stay there, with virtually nothing east of the Adirondacks and southeast of the St. Lawerence River.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

 

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

Source: HYSPLIT

 

The slowly-moving cut-off upper-level low will weaken and eventually retreat to the north by Friday and especially into this weekend, allowing for a warmup with continued southerly or southwesterly flow, and ending any showers. Meanwhile, the ridge in western North America will break down and a trough will enter in, forcing a ridge to build over eastern North America for most of next week for the first time in 6 weeks, an almost total reversal of the pattern over most of the past month. It also looks mostly dry and breezy for at least the first half of next week with more southerly winds, this time bringing in much warmer air. Temperatures could reach 70-75F (21-24C) at lower elevations, challenging daily record highs. It looks like it will be quite a while before we see any true taste of winter weather.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

Source: Climate Prediction Center