Record November warmth Friday through Sunday; still mild and mostly dry but more changeable next week; finally colder and stormier afterward?

 Plain-language summary:

 After a mostly cloudy, and in some places, slightly wet day, it clears and dries out again by tomorrow with a temporary cool down. Record-breaking warmth will occur from Friday through Sunday. A weak cold front will bring a few showers on Sunday and a slight cool down afterward. More changeable temperatures are expected next week, but it will still be mild and mostly dry overall. It might finally turn stormier and somewhat colder by mid-November, though it is still a bit too early to be sure.

Meteorological discussion:

While it is rather cloudy in most of the area due to a very weak pressure trough to the south, it is actually still quite warm for the start of November, with widespread temperatures of 59-68F (15-20C). It is also rather humid for this time of year. Some places received a few showers over the past day, not amounting to very much, but still a noticeable change from the otherwise very dry pattern we have seen for the past two weeks.

Weak northwesterly flow will lead to clearing skies tonight and tomorrow and temporarily cool it down to just slightly above average levels. Most non-urbanized areas will see a frost or freeze tomorrow night with clear skies, but it will warm up for the rest of the week, with record-breaking temperatures expected for Friday, Saturday, and in southeastern areas, likely Sunday as well. Abundant sunshine and relatively weak winds will rule through Friday, with more brisk southerly or southwesterly wind and some more clouds, especially near the U.S./Canada border on north, for the weekend. Temperatures of 68-75F (20-24C) in lower elevations well into Ontario and Quebec on Saturday could break all-time November record highs!

Source: TropicalTidbits

A weak cold front will pass through from west to east on Sunday, but it will not bring more than a few showers as the main storm goes well off to the northwest. It will also not cool down that much right behind the front. It will still be much warmer than average next week due to the amplifying pattern composed of a trough in western North America and a ridge in eastern North America. It is November though, so it is easy for low-level cold air to sneak in from farther north in Ontario and Quebec at times, interrupting the prolonged warm spell and leading to more changeable temperatures. The first instance of this is likely to occur on Tuesday or more likely Wednesday. It still looks rather dry though, as the storm track goes to the northwest and the southwesterly flow aloft is coming from the drier central U.S. and southern Plains, instead of from the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic Ocean.

Source: TropicalTidbits

There are somewhat uncertain signs of the pattern de-amplifying around mid-November, which would allow for the storm track and more cold air to push south into the eastern U.S. However, the still negative, albeit less negative PNA and slightly positive NAO indices make me skeptical of any deep trough or widespread, persistent cold to take hold in the eastern U.S. even then. The PNA appears to be trending less negative though, and sometimes in this setup, our northern latitude allows low-level cold air outbreaks to be more common or even dominate in northern New England on northward, while areas farther south remain warm with the persistent southeast U.S. ridge. This also tends to promote an active storm track in our area, and if we are on the northern side of it where there is enough cold air, we could have the first widespread snow of the season.

Source: Climate Prediction Center